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- 2009-3-24
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本帖最后由 Phantom 于 2009-8-13 09:16 编辑
Op-Ed Columnist
Averting the Worst 避免最坏的情况
By PAUL KRUGMAN
Published: August 9, 2009
So it seems that we aren’t going to have a second Great Depression after all. What saved us? The answer, basically, is Big Government.
如此看来，美国似乎不会出现第二次大萧条了。是什么拯救了这个国家呢？这个问题的答案基本上就是“大政府”。
Just to be clear: the economic situation remains terrible, indeed worse than almost anyone thought possible not long ago. The nation has lost 6.7 million jobs since the recession began. Once you take into account the need to find employment for a growing working-age population, we’re probably around nine million jobs short of where we should be.
我们需要明白一点：美国的经济状况依然很糟糕，事实上比不久前几乎任何人所想象的都要坏。从经济衰退开始，美国已经丧失了670万个工作岗位。如果算上日益庞大的新就业人口对工作岗位的需要，美国大概有近900万的就业缺口。
And the job market still hasn’t turned around — that slight dip in the measured unemployment rate last month was probably a statistical fluke. We haven’t yet reached the point at which things are actually improving; for now, all we have to celebrate are indications that things are getting worse more slowly.
而且，就业市场的形势依旧没有得到好转，最近统计的失业率出现轻微下跌的情况可能是因为统计上的偏差。我们尚未达到实质性改善的地步；目前我们所要庆幸的就是，有迹象表明情况恶化的速度正在减慢。
For all that, however, the latest flurry of economic reports suggests that the economy has backed up several paces from the edge of the abyss.
尽管如此，最新的一连串经济报告显示，经济离深渊的边缘已经倒退了好几步。
A few months ago the possibility of falling into the abyss seemed all too real. The financial panic of late 2008 was as severe, in some ways, as the banking panic of the early 1930s, and for a while key economic indicators — world trade, world industrial production, even stock prices — were falling as fast as or faster than they did in 1929-30.
几个月前，美国经济跌入深渊的可能性似乎非常大。2008年年底的那场金融危机在某种程度上和上世纪30年代初的银行危机同样严重，并且有一段时间，一些主要的经济指标（如全球贸易额、全球工业产量，甚至股价）的下跌速度和1929-30期间一样快或者更快。
But in the 1930s the trend lines just kept heading down. This time, the plunge appears to be ending after just one terrible year.
但是在上世纪30年代，经济的趋势线一直向下。然而这次仅仅过了一年，跌势似乎就有了停止的迹象。
So what saved us from a full replay of the Great Depression? The answer, almost surely, lies in the very different role played by government.
那么，是什么让我们避免重蹈大萧条覆辙的呢？几乎可以肯定的是，答案就在于政府在两次经济危机中所扮演的角色。
Probably the most important aspect of the government’s role in this crisis isn’t what it has done, but what it hasn’t done: unlike the private sector, the federal government hasn’t slashed spending as its income has fallen. (State and local governments are a different story.) Tax receipts are way down, but Social Security checks are still going out; Medicare is still covering hospital bills; federal employees, from judges to park rangers to soldiers, are still being paid.
在这次危机中，政府扮演的角色最重要的大概不是它做了什么，而是没有做什么。与私营部门不同，联邦政府没有在收入减少后削减开支（州及地方政府的则是另外一种情况）。开出的税单数量下降了，然而政府依旧发放了社会福利；联邦医疗保险依旧涵盖了住院费用；而联邦政府雇员们，无论是法官、公园管理员还是士兵都一直拿着薪水。
All of this has helped support the economy in its time of need, in a way that didn’t happen back in 1930, when federal spending was a much smaller percentage of G.D.P. And yes, this means that budget deficits — which are a bad thing in normal times — are actually a good thing right now.
这一切都有助于支持陷入困境的经济，这在1930年是没有出现过的，当年的联邦开支在国内生产总值中所占的百分比比今天低了很多。没错，这意味着预算赤字在正常时期是件坏事，而对于目前的情况而言却是好事。
In addition to having this “automatic” stabilizing effect, the government has stepped in to rescue the financial sector. You can argue (and I would) that the bailouts of financial firms could and should have been handled better, that taxpayers have paid too much and received too little. Yet it’s possible to be dissatisfied, even angry, about the way the financial bailouts have worked while acknowledging that without these bailouts things would have been much worse.
除开这个“自动”稳定的效果外，政府还出面拯救金融业。你可以认为（我也可以认为），对金融机构的救援工作可以并且应该做得更好；纳税人付出的太多，得到的太少。然而，我们可以对金融救援工作的方式感到不满，甚至是愤怒。但是，我们也得承认没有这些救援工作，情况会变得更糟。
The point is that this time, unlike in the 1930s, the government didn’t take a hands-off attitude while much of the banking system collapsed. And that’s another reason we’re not living through Great Depression II.
关键在于，与上世纪30年代不同，政府这次在银行体系出现大面积崩溃的时候没有袖手旁观。这也正是我们不会再次经历大萧条的另一个原因。
Last and probably least, but by no means trivial, have been the deliberate efforts of the government to pump up the economy. From the beginning, I argued that the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, a k a the Obama stimulus plan, was too small. Nonetheless, reasonable estimates suggest that around a million more Americans are working now than would have been employed without that plan — a number that will grow over time — and that the stimulus has played a significant role in pulling the economy out of its free fall.
最后，可能最不重要，但却绝非微不足道的一点就是，政府在支撑经济上所付出的刻意的努力。我从一开始就认为，《美国复苏及再投资法案》（又被称为奥巴马经济刺激方案）的规模太小。然而，一些合理的估计显示，如果没有这个方案，目前美国的就业人数会少近一百万。随着时间的推移，这一数字还会增加。而且，奥巴马的经济刺激方案在防止经济形势出现急剧恶化方面扮演了重要的角色。
All in all, then, the government has played a crucial stabilizing role in this economic crisis. Ronald Reagan was wrong: sometimes the private sector is the problem, and government is the solution.
总而言之，在这次经济危机中，政府在稳定形势上起到了至关重要的作用。罗纳德-里根是错误的：私营部门是问题所在，政府才是解决之道。
And aren’t you glad that right now the government is being run by people who don’t hate government?
而且，如今的政府是由不讨厌政府的人来管理的，这难道不是一件让人高兴的事吗？
We don’t know what the economic policies of a McCain-Palin administration would have been. We do know, however, what Republicans in opposition have been saying — and it boils down to demanding that the government stop standing in the way of a possible depression.
如果麦凯恩和佩林当选，他们会采取什么样的经济政策我们不得而知。但是，我们知道在野的共和党一直在说什么---归根结底，他们就是要求政府不要阻止可能发生的大萧条。
I’m not just talking about opposition to the stimulus. Leading Republicans want to do away with automatic stabilizers, too. Back in March, John Boehner, the House minority leader, declared that since families were suffering, "it’s time for government to tighten their belts and show the American people that we ‘get’ it." Fortunately, his advice was ignored.
我所指的并不仅仅是他们反对经济刺激方案。那些领头的共和党人是想放弃自动稳定经济的措施。回想今年3月，众议院少数派领袖约翰-博纳宣称，由于很多家庭正在备受煎熬，政府应该“勒紧腰带”，让美国人民明白，我们知道他们所遭受的痛苦。幸运的是，他的观点并没有得到人们的关注。
I’m still very worried about the economy. There’s still, I fear, a substantial chance that unemployment will remain high for a very long time. But we appear to have averted the worst: utter catastrophe no longer seems likely.
我依旧对经济形势忧心忡忡。我害怕失业率在很长一段时间内依旧会保持在一个高位上。但是，我们似乎已经避免了最坏的情况：大的灾难不太可能会发生了。
And Big Government, run by people who understand its virtues, is the reason why.
而由一帮深明大政府优点的人所管理的“大政府”则是避免最坏情况发生的原因所在。 |
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